Numerical investigation of alternative fracture stiffness measures and their respective scaling behaviours          下载免费PDF全文

Joseph P. Morris  Jeroen Jocker  Romain Prioul 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(3):791-807

We study the mechanical deformation of fractures under normal stress, via tangent and specific fracture stiffnesses, for different length scales using numerical simulations and analytical insights. First, we revisit an equivalent elastic layer model that leads to two expressions: the tangent stiffness is the sum of an “intrinsic” stiffness and the normal stress, and the specific stiffness is the tangent stiffness divided by the fracture aperture at current stress. Second, we simulate the deformation of rough fractures using a boundary element method where fracture surfaces represented by elastic asperities on an elastic half‐space follow a self‐affine distribution. A large number of statistically identical “parent” fractures are generated, from which sub‐fractures of smaller dimensions are extracted. The self‐affine distribution implies that the stress‐free fracture aperture increases with fracture length with a power law in agreement with the chosen Hurst exponent. All simulated fractures exhibit an increase in the specific stiffness with stress and an average decrease with increase in length consistent with field observations. The simulated specific and tangent stiffnesses are well described by the equivalent layer model provided the “intrinsic” stiffness slightly decreases with fracture length following a power law. By combining numerical simulations and the analytical model, the effect of scale and stress on fracture stiffness measures can be easily separated using the concept of “intrinsic” stiffness. We learn that the primary reason for the variability in specific stiffness with length comes from the fact that the typical aperture of the self‐affine fractures itself scales with the length of the fractures.  相似文献   

Crystalline Dust Features: A Simple Model     

Jeroen Bouwman  L.B.F.M. Waters 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,255(1-2):435-436

  相似文献   

Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area     

Laurens M. Bouwer  Philip Bubeck  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(3):463-471

Damages from weather related disasters are projected to increase, due to a combination of increasing exposure of people and assets, and expected changes in the global climate. Only few studies have assessed in detail the potential range of losses in the future and the factors contributing to the projected increase. Here we estimate future potential damage from river flooding, and analyse the relative role of land-use, asset value increase and climate change on these losses, for a case study area in The Netherlands. Projections of future socioeconomic change (land-use change and increase in the value of assets) are used in combination with flood scenarios, projections of flooding probabilities, and a simple damage model. It is found that due to socioeconomic change, annual expected losses may increase by between 35 and 172% by the year 2040, compared to the baseline situation in the year 2000. If no additional measures are taken to reduce flood probabilities or consequences, climate change may lead to an increase in expected losses of between 46 and 201%. A combination of climate and socioeconomic change may increase expected losses by between 96 and 719%. Asset value increase has a large role, as it may lead to a doubling of losses. The use of single loss estimates may lead to underestimation of the impact of extremely high losses. We therefore also present loss–probability curves for future risks, in order to assess the increase of the most extreme potential loss events. Our approach thus allows a more detailed and comprehensive assessment than previous studies that could also be applied in other study areas to generate flood risk projections. Adaptation through flood prevention measures according to currently planned strategies would counterbalance the increase in expected annual losses due to climate change under all scenarios.  相似文献   

Seasonal and annual throughfall and stemflow in Andean temperate rainforests     

Carlos E. Oyarzún  Roberto Godoy  Jeroen Staelens  Pablo J. Donoso  Niko E. C. Verhoest 《水文研究》2011,25(4):623-633

The partitioning of gross rainfall into throughfall, stemflow, and interception loss and their relationships with forest structure was studied for a period of four years (October 2002–September 2006) and two years (October 2005–September 2007) in seven experimental catchments of temperate rainforest ecosystems located in the Andes of south‐central Chile (39°37′S, 600–925 m a.s.l.). The amount of throughfall, stemflow, and interception loss was correlated with forest structure characteristics such as basal area, canopy cover, mean quadratic diameter (MQD), and tree species characteristics in evergreen and deciduous forests. Annual rainfall ranged from 4061 to 5308 mm at 815 m a.s.l. and from 3453 to 4660 mm at 714 m a.s.l. Throughfall ranged from 64 to 89% of gross rainfall. Stemflow contributed 0·3–3·4% of net precipitation. Interception losses ranged from 11 to 36% of gross rainfall and depended on the amount of rainfall and characteristics as well as on forest structure, particularly the MQD. For evergreen forests, strong correlations were found between stemflow per tree and tree characteristics such as diameter at breast height (R² = 0·92, P < 0·01) and crown projection area (R² = 0·65, P < 0·01). Stemflow per tree was also significantly correlated with epiphyte cover of trunks in the old‐growth evergreen forests (R² = 0·29, P < 0·05). The difference in the proportion of throughfall and interception loss among stands was significant only during winter. The reported relationships between rainfall partitioning and forest structure and composition provide valuable information for management practices, which aimed at producing other ecosystem services in addition to timber in native rainforests of southern Chile. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Limitations in the use of compound-specific stable isotope analysis to understand the behaviour of a complex BTEX groundwater contamination near Brussels (Belgium)     

Ilse Van Keer  Jan Bronders  Jeroen Verhack  Jan Schwarzbauer  Rudy Swennen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(2):457-470

The application of compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) was evaluated to characterise a complex groundwater contamination. For this purpose, δ¹³C and δ²H analysis of benzenes and alkylated derivatives were used to interpret both the impact of different sources on a contaminant plume and the presence of degradation processes. The different contaminant sources could be distinguished based on their combined δ¹³C–δ²H signature of the benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) dissolved in the groundwater. Despite this source differentiation, plume characterisation was not possible due to the complex mixing of the respective contaminant plumes. Furthermore, the original isotope signatures of the sources were not preserved across these plumes. To estimate the level of in situ biodegradation independently from concentration data, the Rayleigh equation was used. Although current literature identifies the application of CSIA as very promising in the frame of characterising organic groundwater pollution, this study has indicated that this approach can be limited with respect to successfully distinguish the different plumes and their relation to the known source zones.  相似文献   

Estimates of spatial variation in evaporation using satellite‐derived surface temperature and a water balance model     

Laurens M. Bouwer  Trent W. Biggs  Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts 《水文研究》2008,22(5):670-682

Evaporation dominates the water balance in arid and semi‐arid areas. The estimation of evaporation by land‐cover type is important for proper management of scarce water resources. Here, we present a method to assess spatial and temporal patterns of actual evaporation by relating water balance evaporation estimates to satellite‐derived radiometric surface temperature. The method is applied to a heterogeneous landscape in the Krishna River basin in south India using 10‐day composites of NOAA advanced very high‐resolution radiometer satellite imagery. The surface temperature predicts the difference between reference evaporation and modelled actual evaporation well in the four catchments (r² = 0·85 to r² = 0·88). Spatial and temporal variations in evaporation are linked to vegetation type and irrigation. During the monsoon season (June–September), evaporation occurs quite uniformly over the case‐study area (1·7–2·1 mm day^?1), since precipitation is in excess of soil moisture holding capacity, but it is higher in irrigated areas (2·2–2·7 mm day^?1). In the post‐monsoon season (December–March) evaporation is highest in irrigated areas (2·4 mm day^?1). A seemingly reasonable estimate of temporal and spatial patterns of evaporation can be made without the use of more complex and data‐intensive methods; the method also constrains satellite estimates of evaporation by the annual water balance, thereby assuring accuracy at the seasonal and annual time‐scales. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  W.J. Wouter Botzen 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1045-1060

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.  相似文献   

Using simulated annealing for resource allocation     

Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts  Gerard B. M. Heuvelink 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):571-587

Many resource allocation issues, such as land use- or irrigation planning, require input from extensive spatial databases and involve complex decisionmaking problems. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are designed to make these issues more transparent and to support the design and evaluation of resource allocation alternatives. Recent developments in this field focus on the design of allocation plans that utilise mathematical optimisation techniques. These techniques, often referred to as multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, run into numerical problems when faced with the high dimensionality encountered in spatial applications. In this paper we demonstrate how simulated annealing, a heuristic algorithm, can be used to solve high-dimensional non-linear optimisation problems for multi-site land use allocation (MLUA) problems. The optimisation model both minimises development costs and maximises spatial compactness of the land use. Compactness is achieved by adding a non-linear neighbourhood objective to the objective function. The method is successfully applied to a case study in Galicia, Spain, using an SDSS for supporting the restoration of a former mining area with new land use.  相似文献   

Did tillage erosion play a role in millennial scale landscape development?     

Jantiene E.M. Baartman  Arnaud J.A.M. Temme  Jeroen M. Schoorl  Michiel H.A. Braakhekke  Tom Veldkamp 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(15):1615-1626

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) quantitatively simulate processes of sedimentation and erosion on millennial timescales. An important aspect of human impact on erosion is sediment redistribution due to agriculture, referred to herein as tillage erosion. In this study we aim to analyse the potential contribution of tillage erosion to landscape development using LEM LAPSUS. The model is calibrated separately for a water erosion process (i) without tillage and (ii) with tillage. The model is applied to the ~250 km² Torrealvilla case study catchment, SE Spain. We were able to simulate alternating sequences of incision and aggradation, that are important on longer (millennial) timescales. Generally, model results show that tillage erosion adds to deposition in the lower floodplain area, but neither water erosion alone nor water with tillage erosion together could exactly reproduce the observed amounts of erosion and sedimentation for the case study area. In addition, scale effects are apparent. On hillslopes, tillage may contribute importantly to erosion and may fill local depressions. If assessed on the catchment scale, sediments from tillage erosion eventually reach the lower floodplain area where they contribute to deposition. However, water erosion was observed in the model simulations to be the most important process on the catchment scale. This is the first time that tillage erosion has been explicitly included in a landscape evolution model at a millennial timescale and large catchment scale. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development of a sustainable livelihood security model for storm-surge hazard in the coastal areas of Bangladesh   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Mahmuda Mutahara  Anisul Haque  M. Shah Alam Khan  Jeroen F. Warner  Philippus Wester 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(5):1301-1315

Coastal communities in Bangladesh are at great risk due to frequent cyclones and cyclone induced storm-surges, which damages inland and marine resource systems. In the present research, seven marginal livelihood groups including Farmers, Fisherman, Fry (shrimp) collectors, Salt farmers, Dry fishers, Forest resource extractors, and Daily wage labourers are identified to be extremely affected by storm- surges in the coastal area of Bangladesh. A livelihood security model was developed to investigate the security status of the coastal livelihood system in a participatory approach. In the model, livelihood security consists of five components: (1) Food, (2) Income, (3) Life & health, (4) House & properties, and (5) Water security. Analytical hierarchy process was followed to assess the livelihood security indicators based on respondents’ security options. The model was verified through direct field observation and expert judgment. The Livelihood Security Model yields a Livelihood Security Index which can be used for assessing and comparing the household security level (in %) of different livelihood groups in the storm-surge prone coastal areas. The model was applied with data from two major coastal areas (Cox’s Bazar and Satkhira) of Bangladesh and is applicable to other coastal areas having similar settings.  相似文献